September 2007 Archives
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International formed a partnership in Exit Polling in 1996. Since then, Edison/Mitofsky has become the preeminent Exit Polling organization in the world. The companies were chosen by ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press to conduct Exit Polls and collect vote returns to project and analyze results for broadcast in 2004 and 2006, and will again provide data for every major presidential primary and the general election in 2008. Edison/Mitofsky also designed the CNN RealVote system used by the cable network during the 2002 General Election. In previous years, Edison/Mitofsky has conducted exclusive Exit Polling for elections around the country including Mayor's races in New York City, Washington, DC, and in state elections for Governor and U.S. Senate.
Edison Media Research successfully uses the same methods used for political exit polling for a variety of commercial uses. We have performed exit polls at a wide variety of locations including retail stores, movie theaters, concert venues, airports, train stations, buses, cruise ship docks, golf courses, baseball stadiums and basketball arenas.
In addition, Edison conducts survey research that provides strategic information to radio stations, television stations, Internet companies, newspapers, cable networks, record labels and other media organizations.
Edison also recently conducted a groundbreaking, national study of localism in radio by the Federal Communications Commission. Like our work for the National Exit Poll, this study involved data collection in each of the 50 states--while there are many research companies with locations and capabilities in various metropolitan locations, Edison is unique in its ability to conduct complex Exit Poll-based research projects in all 50 states, in a wide variety of settings.
Through its history, Edison Media Research has conducted many groundbreaking surveys. Edison, working with Arbitron, has conducted first-of-their-kind national surveys on at-work media usage, radio spot-loads, in-car media, and other topics. Edison is also frequently selected by media trade organizations to conduct research including recent studies on music purchasing, Country Music and Radio, Hispanic music usage, and a variety of other topics.
In addition, Edison has conducted 14 major national studies in conjunction with the Arbitron Company on the role of the Internet in today's media world. These studies shed new light on the impact of the Internet on traditional media and have become the standard guide to the growth in usage of streaming media. Edison Media Research has replicated these Internet surveys in Canada, Finland and the United Kingdom. The results of these studies are quoted frequently in Business Week, Advertising Age, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.
Edison Media Research works with many of the largest Radio Ownership Groups in the United States including Bonneville, Entercom, CBS Radio, Westwood One, Radio One and ABC Radio. Edison Media Research also conducts research for successful radio stations in Argentina, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland and the United Kingdom. Edison Media Research also conducts research for the U.S. Government's broadcasting ventures in the Middle East including "Radio Sawa" and "Radio Farda". This research is currently conducted weekly in Abu Dhabi, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Morocco. Edison Media Research tailors its research to the particular needs and culture of each country while using research techniques that have been proven to work throughout the world.
Check out our Consumer Exit Polling section for more information on the various projects that Edison Media Research has worked with using Exit Polls.
Exit Polls are administered only minutes after voters leave their polling places. The survey results are the best tools available to help understand the motivations and patterns behind the vote.
Exit Polls provide detailed information about:
- Who the voters are
- Demographic breakdowns by age, gender, ethnicity, education, employment and political identity
- What local/regional/national concerns affect voter decisions
- Regional distinctions that color results within a state, region or the nation
The Exit Poll data is available for purchase by TV stations, newspapers, Internet sites and other news outlets. Subscriptions to our surveys greatly enhance Election Night coverage for your audience, branding your company as a primary source for the most thorough coverage. It is our goal to make data available to our subscribers with speed, clarity and most importantly accuracy. The polling data is delivered through a secure web application directly to subscribers on Election Day.
In addition to our Election Night subscriptions, survey data may be purchased one week after voting at a reduced cost. Data will also be provided to the Roper Center in 2009.
What You Get
The secure, password protected web system delivers your data clearly and efficiently.
The Exit Polls will be available as State Surveys, delivering individual state polling results the presidential primaries/caucuses.
Subscribers will receive:- Statewide race crosstab reports. (First report in the late afternoon and updates throughout election night.)
- Detailed demographics include age, gender, income, education, employment, and other key factors.
- Voter responses to current issue and candidate quality questions.
- The ability to view all data in horizontal and vertical cross tab format
- Printer friendly PDF view of results
- The ability to chat with your subscriber contact via telephone and a Live Chat Messenger System on Election Day.
- No projections of election outcomes will be made until all polls close in a state.
After the polls close, if the results indicate a clear outcome, Edison Mitofsky will project the winner. If a race can not be called at poll closing, we will remain in communication throughout election night and inform you when a projection will be made.
Price
Subscriptions for Local, Regional, National and International media outlets are available. Data can be purchased at the statewide, regional and national level. Subscription prices vary by type of media outlet and by size of state and media market. The range is $1000 to $5750 per state. Results for the National Exit Poll are available for $26,000.
Please contact Alicia Buhse for more information concerning a proposal for your organization.
Past Subscribers Include:
The National Election Pool is a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. It was formed in 2003 in order to provide information on Election Night about the vote count, election analysis and election projections. NEP contracted with Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International (Edison/Mitofsky) to make projections and provide Exit Poll analysis. In addition, the NEP retained the Associated Press to conduct a tabulation of the vote throughout the country.
What does the Associated Press provide to the NEP?
The AP collects voter returns from all counties in the United States and from cities/towns in the New England states. They provide tabulations for each state for Senate and Governor, and congressional district tabulations for U.S. House of Representatives. They also provide tabulations for selected state referenda and initiatives. Regular AP clients are offered a more comprehensive vote count for many additional political contests.
What does Edison/Mitofsky provide to the NEP?
Edison/Mitofsky conducts statewide Exit Polls throughout the country as well as a National survey. In addition, Edison/Mitofsky collects the vote count in a sample of precincts in each state. Edison/Mitofsky provides Exit Poll analysis and projections for President, U.S. Senate, Governor as well as selected U.S. House, and state referenda and initiatives.
What is an Exit Poll?
Exit Polls are interviews with voters after they have cast their votes at their polling places. A sample of precincts are scientifically selected to collectively represent a state, or for the national Exit Poll, the nation. An interviewer gives every nth voter exiting the polling place a questionnaire to complete. There are questions about demographics such as gender, age, race, and issues related to the person's vote choice in different contests. Participation is voluntary and anonymous. The interviewing starts when the polls open and continue throughout the day until about an hour before the polls close.
Who decides what questions to ask on the Exit Poll?
All questions asked on state and national questionnaires are prepared by the six members of the National Election Pool.
How many polling places will be in your sample?
Sample sizes vary from state to state.
How do you select sample precincts?
Precincts are selected as a stratified probability sample of each state. The purpose of stratification is to group together precincts with similar vote characteristics. A recent past election was used to identify all precincts as they existed for that election. The total vote in each precinct and the partisan division of the vote from this past race are used for the stratification. In addition, counties are used for stratifying the precincts. The total vote also is used to determine the probability of selection. Each voter in a state has approximately the same chance of being selected in the sample.
Who makes projections of the winning candidates?
Projections are made by Edison/Mitofsky and transmitted to each of the NEP members and subscribing news organizations. Edison/Mitofsky does not provide its information to the public. Each of the members has its own analysts who review the Exit Poll results and the tabulated data as it is collected. Each news organization makes its own decision about what to report to the public. All decisions are made after careful review by the analysts and are not automatic decisions made by a computer.
How are projections of winners made?
Projections of a winning candidate are based on models that use votes from three different sources -- Exit Poll interviews with voters, vote returns as reported by election officials from the sample precincts, and tabulations of votes by county. The models make estimates from all these vote reports. The models also indicate the likely error in the estimates. The best model estimate may be used to make a projection if it passes a series of tests.
When will projections be made?
Projections of a winning candidate are only made after all the polls in a state are closed and when the best model estimates show a clear winner. There will be no projections before the last polls in a state are closed.
How do absentee votes affect projections?
In a number of states significant numbers of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. They either cast an absentee ballot or they vote at voting locations set-up for voters in the weeks leading up to the election. The results of these absentee/early voters' interviews are combined with the Election Day Interviews. Instead, they are interviewed by telephone shortly before the election. They are asked the same questions as voters interviewed in the Exit Polls on Election Day.
What is the Margin of Error for an Exit Poll?
Every number estimated from a sample may depart from the official vote count. The difference between a sample result and the number one would get if everyone who cast a vote was interviewed in exactly the same way is called the sampling error. That does not mean the sample result is wrong. Instead, it refers to the potential error due to sampling. The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is about +/- 3% for a typical characteristic from the national Exit Poll and +/-4% for a typical state Exit Poll. Characteristics that are more concentrated in a few polling places, such as race, have larger sampling errors. Other non sampling factors may increase the total error.
How many people will it take to conduct the Exit Polls and collect the vote at the Edison/Mitofsky sample precincts?
For a national election, almost 3,000 people will be required to do the job at Edison/Mitofsky. This includes Exit Poll interviewers, telephone operators to take their calls at election headquarters, reporters at the sample precincts to get the vote, developers to program the computers, systems specialists, election researchers, technical support at all sites, analysts reviewing the computations, support staff to manage the Exit Polls and management of the project. In addition the Associated Press will staff its operation with thousands of additional people.
Are these current models and procedures going to assure the public that there will be no mistakes?
Since Edison/Mitofsky began conducting exit polls for the National Election Pool in 2003, the news organizations using the Edison Mitofsky data have not made a single mistake in deciding a winner in any race.
Exit polling will be conducted for the major presidential primaries and caucuses currently scheduled for early 2008, and the presidential, senate and governor elections in all 50 states in November 2008.
The General Election Exit Poll is one of the largest one-day survey research undertakings in the world and the Edison/Mitofsky team will conduct more than 100,000 interviews with voters on election day at more than 1,000 polling locations. The data created from these surveys are crucial to our national understanding of how the electorate makes is decision in each election.
Any news organization in the United States and around the world can subscribe to the election exit polls for live Election Night data feeds. Academic institutions and other interested parties can purchase data for analysis after the election.
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International have been the exclusive providers of exit poll data to the National Election Pool since 2003. Since 1994 Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International have been conducting exit polls in the United States in addition to exit polls conducted for elections in Mexico, Russia, Taiwan and Azerbaijan.
For more information on how to become a subscriber of exit polls for the 2008 elections, call 888-325-8683 or contact Alicia Buhse to get subscription information for your organization. Post-election researchers are encouraged to inquire.
Check out our Consumer Exit Polling section for more information on the various projects that Edison Media Research has worked with using Exit Polls.
View 2006 Exit Poll Results on our member web sites at:
CNN, CBS, NBC, FOXView 2004 Exit Poll Results on our member web sites at:
CNN, CBS, NBC, FOXFrom DesMoinesRegister.com on September 28, 2007.
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Joe Lenski quoted in St. Petersburg Times' Politifact.com
From September 10, 2007
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